“Don’t let a good crisis go by” Winston Churchill
Could it be Winston Churchill has great advice for investors? If so, get ready to load up! Stock market opportunity unfolds as the politicians fiddle in front of us. Or do we grab a bag the beans and run for the hills?
Real Crisis Looms or…Real Manufactured Opportunity?
U.S. Government shutdown
Debt ceiling looms
Dollar up or is it down
Gold up or down or something
Tapering talk – yes, no, maybe
Quantitative easing continues
Massive debt growth
2008 Financial crisis lingers
Pending economic gridlock
My vote is for staying in the stock market and looking for new opportunity.
By stepping back from the fray and thinking it through we can see good fortune lurking. Each of the above issues could indeed end the progress being made throughout the economy. True, possible, but a very unlikely outcome.
In fact that is absolutely not going to happen.
More than ever it continues to be hard to believe any words that come from political players. We are being gamed. Do we need the political smarts of a Winston Churchill? We can only wish the politicians would fiddle with themselves and leave us alone. This never ending show will continue until voter fatigue, anger and financial support brings change.
I can’t see anything on the horizon that suggests any such development. Therefore my expectation is more of the same for the foreseeable future. And with the timely advice of Winston Churchill we should seize this as an opportunity.
So what to do?
Winston has the right idea. We can’t let this good crisis go by. We can use this politically manufactured endlessly looping replay and a volatile stock market to position ourselves to win.
Do your homework on any new stock positions you are considering and wait to buy while the market moves down. Stocks are on sale!
To play this, let the discounting continue. If you are risk tolerant, buy the dips. If you are more conservative wait until the market trends up. Then buy as we again climb up.
Once we start moving up again you will be able to ride your new positions higher. I expect that we can ride a wave of continuing market growth that will last for at least two more years and perhaps longer.
In addition to the multiple crises listed above there are many more signs of trouble. Global growth remains fragile. I am not ignoring the many negative issues but do believe that on balance the economy will grow. In my opinion, the stock market will work up to higher levels.
This opinion is based on the belief that enough of your neighbors have or will get jobs, buy or renovate houses and replace or add cars. If hiring and buying continue, the stock market will move higher.
I do think that consumer driven growth will continue. Simplistic, yes. But consumers consistently provide effective sets of economic indicators. The current October political crisis will pass and we will move higher.
Of course political games never end. Once past this set of disasters, those clever political lights will manufacture another one. Following the cool crisis example of the confident Winston Churchill, we shall take advantage and buy rather than sell.
And those beans we thought of grabbing as we ran for the hills, they can’t be forgotten. We will use them to make a fine base for our harvest stew – at home!
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