Profit from a quick, easy & accurate economic report
Part 3 of 4: White Top View, Market Direction series
Get a fast read on the most likely stock market direction. Some easy observations and a few simple questions can give you a reliable and useful indication of stock market direction.
Among your contacts, neighbors, friends and family, observe and ask questions on the five following points:
5 Points of economic research
Careers advancing or are jobs being lost?
People concerned or confident about employment?
New cars being bought or old cars repaired?
Houses being purchased and renovations made?
More people upsizing or downsizing?
You can spend weeks delving deeply into economic reports or listening to the droning and arguing of pundits, experts and politicians. Or use this simple alternative approach which works very well.
Checking those economic indicators near you works to give you a good view of the local economy.
The earlier posts in the, White Top View, Market Direction series are available by clicking the links:
You now have your own economic snapshot!
Jobs, cars and houses can tell you what you need to know. Even in smaller communities and those based entirely on natural resource extraction, these indicators work well. They are easily observed and well understood.
For the national economy, results from major metropolitan centers are most indicative. Sampling from two or more centers in two regions can add depth to your research.
Finally you can refine your personal observations by making a few Google inquiries.
Car Sale Trends
House Sale Trends
The search results from these inquiries can be refined further by adding “+ nation (or + community)” to each Google search. The “nation” being your country or the country you want to study. The community being the name of the city.
Some interpretation required
The results will not be uniform which is completely normal. Consider the information you gathered. On balance is it positive or negative? What overall trend do you see?
The opinions of those you ask, do matter. Both opinion and facts matter to the economic and stock market outlook. But facts, the actual numbers, give you the best information.
The absolute numbers of jobs, cars or houses does not matter. What matters are the increases or decreases in sales. The trend. Compare current numbers with the results from 3, 6 and 12 months ago.
The results will certainly have a trend or bias. They will be up or down. The direction of the bias, mostly positive or mostly negative, gives the answer you need. With that you have a very good indication of the most probable stock market direction for months ahead.
It comes down to one question. Is the trend up or down? On balance, more sales over three months means we are going up. Less means down.
Next time our discussion on stock market direction pointers will continue.
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White Top Investor
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Links to, White Top View, Market Direction series: